FAMILY_MULTI_SOURCE_STOCK_INTELLIGENCE: Experiment Tracking

Experiment Overview

Hypothesis: Integrating multiple European stock intelligence sources provides superior market tightness indicators compared to single-source approaches, building on the 82.5% success of FAMILY_APRIL_STOCK_TIGHTNESS methodology.

Data Sources: REAL DATA ONLY from repository interfaces - Belgian FIWAP stock surveys (2010-2025, 16 observations) - French CNIPT stock surveys (2022-2024, 3 observations)
- Dutch processing demand estimates (2018-2024, 7 observations) - Dutch spot prices via BoerderijApi (NL.157.2086, 500+ observations) - International prices for cross-validation (BE/DE/FR via BoerderijApi)

Expected Improvements: - Variant A (Belgian-Dutch Convergence): 15-20% - Variant B (French-European Intelligence): 18-23% - Variant C (Multi-Source Synthesis): 20-25%

Experiment Results

Execution Attempt: 2025-08-19

Status: INCONCLUSIVE - INSUFFICIENT_DATA

Variants Attempted: A, B, C (all attempted)

Data Successfully Loaded: - ✅ StockAPI: Belgian FIWAP April 1st surveys (16 years, REAL data) - ✅ StockAPI: French CNIPT April 1st surveys (3 years, REAL data) - ✅ BoerderijApi: Weekly Dutch potato prices (REAL data) - ✅ International prices: BE, DE, FR markets (REAL data)

Issues Encountered: - CBS API parameter mismatch: filters argument not recognized - No valid CV folds generated for 30-day or 60-day horizons - Temporal alignment challenge: Annual stock snapshots vs weekly prices - Insufficient overlapping observations for robust cross-validation

Statistical Tests Attempted: - ✅ Standard baselines: get_standard_baselines() properly invoked - ❌ Diebold-Mariano test: Could not execute due to insufficient folds - ❌ TOST equivalence: Requires successful CV completion

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE - INSUFFICIENT_DATA - Hypothesis merit cannot be evaluated without proper temporal alignment - Stock intelligence sources are REAL and accessible - Need to resolve annual-to-weekly interpolation methodology - Minimum 100+ aligned observations required for robust evaluation

Data Quality Confirmation: - 100% REAL DATA from verified repository interfaces - NO synthetic, mock, or dummy data used - All data sources traced to official survey PDFs and market APIs

Next Steps Required: 1. Fix CBS API parameter interface 2. Implement proper stock-to-price temporal alignment 3. Extend evaluation period to capture more annual stock observations 4. Consider monthly aggregation to improve alignment

Updated: 2025-08-19 by EX

Decision Log

This section will track final decisions and next steps after experiment completion