Experiment Log: FAMILY_LANDSAT_THERMAL_STRESS

Hypothesis Overview

Central Hypothesis: Landsat thermal infrared bands provide direct canopy temperature measurements that create predictable Dutch potato price movements through early stress detection, spatial heterogeneity patterns, and thermal-NDVI decoupling signals.

Key Innovation: First exploitation of thermal infrared data for potato price forecasting, leveraging 40-year Landsat archive for robust historical patterns.

Variants

Variant A: Canopy Temperature Anomalies

• Hypothesis: LST >2°C above normal → 8-10% yield reduction → price increase
• Features: lst_anomaly, thermal_stress_days, max_temperature_exceedance
• Target: 30-day, 60-day price forecasts

Variant B: Thermal-NDVI Decoupling

• Hypothesis: Thermal-NDVI decoupling predicts quality issues 2-3 weeks early
• Features: thermal_ndvi_ratio, decoupling_index, stress_onset_timing
• Target: 30-day, 60-day price forecasts

Variant C: Spatial Thermal Gradients

• Hypothesis: High thermal heterogeneity indicates uneven maturity → harvest issues
• Features: thermal_cv, gradient_magnitude, hot_spot_fraction
• Target: 30-day, 60-day price forecasts

Data Requirements

• Landsat Thermal: Bands 10/11 (to be ingested into zarr store)
• Landsat Optical: Existing zarr with red/nir08 for NDVI
• BRP Parcels: Field boundaries for zonal statistics
• Boerderij.nl: Weekly potato prices

Implementation Status

Created: 2025-08-17 Status: PENDING - Awaiting thermal band ingestion into Landsat zarr store

HE Notes

This hypothesis family represents a paradigm shift from weather station interpolation to direct thermal measurement. Key advantages:

1. Direct Measurement: Canopy temperature vs interpolated air temperature
2. Spatial Resolution: 30m pixels capture field-level heterogeneity
3. Historical Depth: 40+ years of consistent observations
4. Independent Signal: Thermal stress detection complements NDVI

The hypothesis builds on successful satellite validation (FAMILY_YIELD_VARIANCE_PREDICTORS) while adding the novel thermal dimension. No prior experiments have exploited thermal infrared data despite its proven value in agricultural stress detection literature.

Critical Success Factor: Ingestion of Landsat thermal bands (B10, B11) into zarr store infrastructure.

Experiment Results

[Verdicts will be appended here by EX after running experiments]