Experimentenbibliotheek
Deze pagina bundelt alle experiments en hypotheses uit de repository. Elk kaartje verwijst naar de ruwe markdown en een eventuele Codex-kwalificatie.
Experiments
FAMILY_MULTI_SPECTRAL_INDICES
**Hypothesis**: Multiple vegetation and moisture indices (NDVI, EVI, NDWI, SAVI, GNDVI, NBR) from Sentinel-2 provide stronger predictive signal than single NDVI by capturing different crop stress dimensions (water, chlorophyll, soil moisture), achieving 10-15% improvement over persistent baseline at 12-week horizon.
Experiments
FAMILY_SATELLITE_ANOMALY_DETECTION
**Core Hypothesis**: While normal vegetation variation does not predict continuous potato prices (as proven by NDVI and multi-spectral failures), **extreme satellite-visible anomalies** that represent catastrophic events (droughts, floods, frost) do precede major price spikes. By focusing on binary classification of extreme events rather than continuous regression, satellite data can provide early warning of price disruptions.
Experiments
FAMILY_SATELLITE_STORAGE_INFERENCE
**CRITICAL**: This experiment will use REAL DATA ONLY from repository interfaces. NO synthetic/mock data allowed.
Experiments
FAMILY_SEASONAL_PLANTING
This experiment tests whether multi-temporal vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, SAVI, GNDVI) measured during potato growth and harvest periods (May-October) contain predictive signals for potato prices 1-3 months into the storage season (December-February). Based on literature findings showing R² = 0.67-0.84 between peak NDVI and yield, combined with established yield-price relationships, we hypothesize that growth season satellite monitoring provides valuable forward-looking price signals with 5-15% MAPE improvement potential.
Experiments
FAMILY_STORAGE_DECAY_INTEGRATION
**CRITICAL**: This experiment uses ONLY REAL DATA from repository interfaces. NO synthetic/mock data allowed.
Experiments
FAMILY_YOY_NDVI_LANDSAT
**Hypothesis**: Integrating Landsat NDVI intelligence with the proven YoY methodology will achieve **57-62% improvement** by capturing multi-decadal vegetation patterns that drive year-over-year potato price changes. Building on the revolutionary 54.6% weather success, NDVI satellite intelligence should provide an additional 3-8 percentage points through 40-year historical vegetation analysis combined with proven YoY framework.
Experiments
FAMILY_YOY_PRICE_ONLY
**Hypothesis**: Year-over-Year (YoY) price change targets using the formula `Y_{t,m+h} = 100 × (P_{t,m+h} - P_{t-1,m+h}) / P_{t-1,m+h}` create superior predictive power by focusing on relative annual patterns rather than absolute prices, leveraging seasonal cycles and storage dynamics that repeat yearly. This approach should achieve 10-30% improvement over standard baselines at 8-week horizons.
Experiments
FAMILY_YOY_WEATHER
**Hypothesis**: Adding weather intelligence to the proven YoY price framework will achieve **>35% improvement** by capturing year-over-year climate variations that drive potato price changes. Weather-enhanced YoY targets should outperform the revolutionary 32.8% success of FAMILY_YOY_PRICE_ONLY by 3-13 percentage points through agricultural weather pattern recognition.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_APRIL_STOCK_TIGHTNESS
Testing whether April 1st stock tightness indicators from Belgian and French surveys predict Dutch potato price movements through free market supply constraints and cross-border transmission effects using REAL DATA ONLY from official European stock surveys.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_APRIL_WEATHER_SYNTHESIS
Testing revolutionary multiplicative synthesis of two PROVEN breakthrough mechanisms: - **FAMILY_APRIL_STOCK_TIGHTNESS**: 82.5% improvement (CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTED) - **FAMILY_WEATHER_ACCUMULATION**: 95.5% improvement (SUPPORTED)
Hypotheses
FAMILY_AUTOML_PATTERN_DISCOVERY
**Objective**: Use AutoML frameworks to automatically discover hidden patterns and beat the current 53.7% improvement baseline at 12-week horizons through computational brute force and automated feature engineering.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_BELGIAN_PRICE_SHOCK_TRANSMISSION
**Hypothesis**: Belgian potato price shocks transmit to Dutch markets through arbitrage mechanisms, with extreme events like the June 2021 spike (522.99 vs base 100) providing natural experiments for transmission analysis.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_BELGISCH_MARKT_KOPPELING
Testing whether Belgian-Dutch coupling strength variations create predictable Dutch potato price movements through crisis coupling amplification, seasonal coupling patterns, and processing demand coupling using corrected methodology from FAMILY_CROSS_MARKET_COUPLING with Belgian-specific focus.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_BREAKTHROUGH_4WEEK_STRATEGIES
**CRITICAL OBJECTIVE**: Achieve >5% improvement over persistence baseline (MAE < 2.38 vs current 2.51) at 4-week horizon through aggressive non-linear strategies that exploit persistence blindness.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_CBS_NOWCASTING
Testing CBS provisional-to-final harvest revision patterns for improved nowcasting of Dutch potato prices through direct provisional usage, revision pattern modeling, and combined signal integration.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_COMPOUNDING_SHORTAGE_SIGNALS
Testing revolutionary compounding signal intelligence framework where multiple shortage indicators (stock tightness + weather stress + input cost pressure + supply chain constraints) compound multiplicatively to create supercharged forecasting signals. This represents the fourth and final advanced hypothesis building on the culmination of all successful mechanisms for unprecedented compounding amplification using REAL DATA ONLY.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_CONTRACT_DELIVERY_PRESSURE
**Hypothesis**: Contract delivery obligations create predictable spot market pressure when processing demand exceeds contracted supply using the 45%/55% methodology from April 1st stock calculations.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_CROSS_BORDER_BASIS_RISK
**Hypothesis**: Basis risk between European national potato markets (Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France) creates predictable Dutch price movements through differential responses to common shocks and mean-reverting spread dynamics.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_CROSS_BORDER_STOCK_ARBITRAGE
Testing cross-border stock arbitrage opportunities where stock tightness differentials between Belgium, France, and Netherlands create predictable Dutch potato price movements through regional supply reallocation, processing demand spillover, and transport-cost arbitrage mechanisms using REAL DATA ONLY from official European stock surveys and international potato price feeds.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_CROSS_COMMODITY_SUBSTITUTION_DYNAMICS
This family tests whether Dutch farmers' cross-commodity substitution decisions during planting and harvest windows create predictable price impacts through forward-looking market anticipation.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_CROSS_MARKET_COUPLING
**TRANSFORMATION DATE: 2025-08-17** **TRANSFORMATION REASON: Discovery of accessible international potato price data enables true cross-market analysis**
Hypotheses
FAMILY_CUMULATIVE_INPUT_STRESS
Testing cumulative input cost stress accumulation for Dutch potato price forecasting using the proven CUMULATIVE METHODOLOGY from FAMILY_WEATHER_ACCUMULATION (92.4-97.5% improvement). This hypothesis applies accumulation patterns to European input cost data, learning from the failure of immediate transmission approaches.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_CUMULATIVE_QUALITY_DEGRADATION
Storage quality degradation accumulates non-linearly through cumulative degree-days and time-in-storage interactions, creating predictable price pressure points at quality thresholds.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_DEMAND_CYCLES
Testing consumer demand cycles and food service consumption patterns for Dutch potato price forecasting through seasonal preferences, holiday peaks, and processing demand variations.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_DIESEL_CORRELATION
Diesel fuel prices serve as leading indicators for Dutch potato prices through transport cost transmission mechanisms operating at 1-4 week lags, with asymmetric "rockets and feathers" patterns and composite transport indices providing superior predictive power.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_EUROPEAN_BASIS_CONVERGENCE
Testing whether cross-border basis spreads between European potato markets exhibit MEAN-REVERTING patterns with threshold effects, creating predictable convergence dynamics that drive Dutch spot price movements through arbitrage mechanisms and equilibrium restoration forces.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_EUROPEAN_FERTILIZER_CRISIS
This family exploits the 2022 European fertilizer crisis as a natural experiment to test regional cost transmission effects on Dutch potato prices. The crisis created massive regional divergences (German peak 216.8 vs French +40% increase) providing unique opportunity to test input cost transmission mechanisms using REAL DATA from European statistical agencies.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_EUROPEAN_STORAGE_CASCADE
Testing European storage CASCADE transmission where Belgian stock stress transmits through Netherlands to broader European processing demand, creating compound arbitrage effects that enable superior price forecasting compared to individual country analysis using REAL DATA ONLY from official survey sources.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_EUROSTAT_TRANSPORT_ARBITRAGE
Testing Eurostat transport cost indices for validating the €12/ton arbitrage threshold between Netherlands and neighboring markets. This hypothesis uses REAL DATA ONLY from repository interfaces - Eurostat API for transport costs and BoerderijApi for international potato prices.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_EXTREME_WEATHER_INSURANCE
Extreme weather events trigger insurance payouts that affect farmer planting decisions in the following season, creating predictable potato price movements through altered supply expectations.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_FERTILIZER_LAG_TRANSMISSION
Testing fertilizer cost LAG TRANSMISSION effects where 2022 European fertilizer crisis cost advantages transmit to Dutch potato prices through 6-18 month production cycle delays rather than immediate cost pass-through. This hypothesis uses REAL DATA ONLY from repository interfaces to test temporal lag mechanisms.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_FERTILIZER_WEATHER_STRESS_SYNERGIES
Testing compound multiplicative effects between input cost shocks (NPK fertilizer, diesel, electricity) and weather stress conditions (drought, heat) on Dutch potato prices. This hypothesis uses REAL DATA ONLY from Eurostat APIs, Open-Meteo weather, and BoerderijApi prices to measure perfect storm dynamics where stressed crops require more inputs while input costs are elevated.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_FREE_MARKET_LEVERAGE
Exploits the fundamental market structure where only 20-25% of potatoes trade on volatile spot markets, creating massive leverage effects. The leverage formula price_impact = demand_shock / free_market_fraction explains why small fundamental changes (5-10%) create massive price volatility (100-200%).
Hypotheses
FAMILY_GENUINE_OPTIMIZATION
**Family ID**: FAMILY_GENUINE_OPTIMIZATION **Created**: 2025-08-20 **Status**: ACTIVE - Ready for Implementation
Hypotheses
FAMILY_GROWING_SEASON_DYNAMICS
This document tracks experimental runs for growing season dynamics intelligence using real satellite vegetation trajectory analysis. Tests whether NDVI/EVI curve patterns during growing season predict harvest prices.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_HARVEST_PRESSURE
This experiment tests whether annual harvest production variations (3.1-3.9M tons) create predictable price movements through supply shock mechanisms. We examine three variants: - **Variant A**: Direct harvest impact using CBS volumes - **Variant B**: Harvest pressure with storage buffer effects - **Variant C**: CBS provisional-to-final revision patterns
Hypotheses
FAMILY_HARVEST_TIMING_OPTIMIZATION
Farmers optimize harvest timing within 2-3 week windows based on weather forecasts and price signals, creating predictable price movements through strategic supply timing.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_IMPORT_FLOWS
Testing whether import/export flow dynamics and cross-border price differentials create predictable price patterns in Dutch potato markets through supply augmentation, arbitrage opportunities, and lagged price transmission.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_INPUT_COST_TRANSMISSION
Testing agricultural input price transmission to Dutch potato prices using Eurostat data for fertilizer, diesel, and electricity costs. This hypothesis uses REAL DATA ONLY from repository interfaces to measure cost-push inflation dynamics with 4-8 week lags.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_INTERNATIONAL_LEAD_LAG_DYNAMICS
Testing properly aligned weekly international price lead-lag relationships between Netherlands and neighboring markets (Belgium, Germany, France). This hypothesis uses REAL DATA ONLY from BoerderijApi's international price records, with proper weekly alignment instead of flawed exact-date matching.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_IOT_STORAGE_OPTIMIZATION
**Family ID**: FAMILY_IOT_STORAGE_OPTIMIZATION **Status**: Active **Created**: 2025-08-19 **Last Updated**: 2025-08-19
Hypotheses
FAMILY_LANDSAT_THERMAL_STRESS
**Central Hypothesis**: Landsat thermal infrared bands provide direct canopy temperature measurements that create predictable Dutch potato price movements through early stress detection, spatial heterogeneity patterns, and thermal-NDVI decoupling signals.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_LONGTERM_SEASONAL_FORECASTING
Testing the hypothesis that seasonal patterns and year-over-year dynamics provide genuine predictive power at 2-3 month horizons where persistence baseline deteriorates 4-6x.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_MARKET_SENTIMENT
Testing whether market sentiment indicators (momentum, volatility regimes, technical patterns) create predictable short-term price dynamics in Dutch potato markets.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_MULTI_CROP_COMPETITION
**Status**: Active **Created**: 2025-08-17 **Innovation Type**: Paradigm Shift - Agricultural Systems Economics **Data Policy**: REAL DATA ONLY (CBS, Boerderij.nl, Open-Meteo APIs)
Hypotheses
FAMILY_MULTI_SOURCE_STOCK_INTELLIGENCE
**Hypothesis**: Integrating multiple European stock intelligence sources provides superior market tightness indicators compared to single-source approaches, building on the 82.5% success of FAMILY_APRIL_STOCK_TIGHTNESS methodology.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_MULTI_SPECTRAL_FUSION
This document tracks experimental runs for advanced multi-spectral fusion intelligence using all 12 Sentinel-2 bands and sophisticated vegetation indices. Tests whether comprehensive spectral analysis can surpass the 20.5% improvement achieved by FAMILY_GROWING_SEASON_DYNAMICS.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_MULTI_SPECTRAL_INDICES
**Data Pipeline**: 1. Load Sentinel-2 zarr store for target time periods 2. Apply BRP parcel masks for consumption potato fields 3. Calculate six vegetation indices using real band values 4. Aggregate to weekly temporal resolution 5. Extract statistical features per index
Hypotheses
FAMILY_NETWORK_EFFECT_PROPAGATION
Testing network effect propagation models for Dutch potato price forecasting through market shock transmission patterns, cross-border contagion networks, and multi-layer network dynamics. This hypothesis builds on FAMILY_CROSS_MARKET_COUPLING (CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTED with 86.8% improvement) by advancing beyond simple transmission to sophisticated network propagation algorithms and FAMILY_BELGIAN_PRICE_SHOCK_TRANSMISSION (REFUTED with -24% performance) by using network topology modeling instead of simple shock transmission.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_NW_MARKET
These experiments use ONLY real data from repository interfaces. NO synthetic data was used.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_PARCEL_CONSOLIDATION_MOMENTUM
Testing how parcel consolidation momentum creates predictable Dutch potato price movements through efficiency acceleration, market power concentration, and technology adoption amplification using REAL DATA from validated BRP API methodology.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_PARCEL_DYNAMICS
Testing how annual parcel boundary dynamics for consumption potatoes create predictable price impacts through supply signaling, efficiency effects, and regional production shifts.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_PERSISTENCE_FAILURE_DETECTION
**CRITICAL INNOVATION**: This family implements the first adversarial approach to persistence - instead of trying to beat it everywhere, we identify where it fails catastrophically and build targeted exception handlers.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_PLANTING_INTENSITY_SIGNALS
Testing how spatial clustering intensity patterns in Dutch consumption potato planting create predictable price movements through logistics bottlenecks, supply chain friction, and coordination problems. This represents the **first spatial economics analysis** in agricultural commodity forecasting using exact parcel coordinates.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_PRICE_MOMENTUM
Testing simple price autocorrelation and momentum patterns in Dutch potato markets through mean-reversion dynamics, storage holder behavior, and market microstructure effects.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_PRICE_VOLATILITY_CLUSTERING
Testing advanced econometric volatility clustering prediction through regime-switching GARCH models, multi-scale volatility decomposition, and weather-volatility regime coupling. **Revolutionary methodology**: First application of sophisticated financial econometrics to agricultural commodity volatility for volatility clustering pattern prediction rather than traditional price level forecasting.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_PROCESSING_DEMAND_IMBALANCE
Cross-border processing demand imbalances create predictable spot market pressure when NL/DE/BE combined processing demand (11-12M tons) exceeds available supply, forcing price-driven market clearing.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_PROCESSING_DEMAND_SIGNALS
French fries processing demand from BE/DE factories creates predictable pull-through effects on Dutch potato prices through fries-grade price signals and cross-border procurement patterns.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_PRODUCTION_CYCLE
Testing early-season production indicators for Dutch potato price forecasting through CBS harvest estimates, satellite vegetation indices, and combined multi-source models.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_QUALITY_PREMIUM
Testing quality-based price premiums through grade differentials, storage-induced transitions, and integrated quality lifecycle models for Dutch potato price forecasting.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_REGIME_SWITCHING_VOLATILITY
Testing regime-switching volatility models for Dutch potato price forecasting through Markov-switching volatility patterns, weather-coupled regime detection, and multi-scale regime decomposition. This hypothesis builds on FAMILY_PRICE_VOLATILITY_CLUSTERING (INCONCLUSIVE with 8.2% QLIKE improvement) by advancing to sophisticated regime-switching methodologies and FAMILY_SPRING_VOL (CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTED with 84x volatility regime differences) by implementing systematic regime-switching models instead of seasonal volatility analysis.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_REGIONAL_ARBITRAGE
Testing whether regional price differentials between Dutch production regions and neighboring markets create predictable arbitrage opportunities that influence spot prices through transport economics, storage distribution, and cross-border trade flows.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_REGIONAL_INPUT_DIVERGENCE
**Hypothesis**: Regional divergence in agricultural input costs (fertilizer, energy, diesel) across European countries creates predictable Dutch potato price movements through differential production cost pressures and competitive advantages.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_REGIONAL_WEATHER_DIVERGENCE
Divergent weather patterns between Dutch production regions (Flevoland vs Zeeland vs Noord-Brabant) create internal arbitrage opportunities and regional supply imbalances that drive predictable price movements.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_SATELLITE_NDVI_ASYMMETRY
**REVOLUTIONARY CONCEPT VALIDATED**: Satellite NDVI crop health signals provide a breakthrough opportunity to enhance the proven 53.7% baseline improvement at 12-week horizons. Through comprehensive analysis and proof-of-concept implementation, we have established the framework for pushing potato price forecasting performance to unprecedented 60-70% total improvement levels.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_SATELLITE_NDVI_REAL
This experiment tests whether REAL satellite-derived vegetation indices (NDVI and others) from Sentinel-2 imagery can improve potato price forecasting at 12-week horizons. Unlike the invalidated FAMILY_SATELLITE_NDVI_ASYMMETRY that used synthetic data, this implementation uses exclusively REAL data from the repository's zarr stores.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_SATELLITE_PRICE_PREDICTION
**Status**: PENDING VALIDATION **Created**: 2025-08-23 **Hypothesis**: Satellite vegetation indices provide 12-16 week price forecast advantage through early planting and stress detection
Hypotheses
FAMILY_SATELLITE_YIELD_DIVERGENCE
Testing satellite-detected yield divergence patterns for Dutch potato price forecasting through within-field heterogeneity analysis, regional variance signals, and temporal acceleration patterns. This family advances beyond absolute yield prediction to exploit DIVERGENCE patterns, building on validated Sentinel-2 processing methodology from FAMILY_YIELD_VARIANCE_PREDICTORS while solving computational constraints through representative sampling.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_SEASONAL_PLANTING
Testing how seasonal planting decisions and acreage allocation patterns create predictable price movements through cobweb dynamics, weather-constrained planting windows, and competing crop economics.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_SEED_POTATO_FORWARD_SIGNALS
Testing seed potato prices as 3-4 month forward indicators for consumption potato prices through cost transmission, acreage decisions, and market expectations. Seed potatoes represent 25-30% of production costs and embed forward-looking supply information. This hypothesis uses REAL DATA ONLY from repository interfaces.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_SPATIAL_HETEROGENEITY
This document tracks experimental runs for spatial heterogeneity intelligence using field-level variability analysis, hot spot detection, and multi-scale spatial patterns to predict potato prices. Tests whether spatial analysis can surpass the 20.5% improvement achieved by temporal satellite intelligence.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_SPRING_DROUGHT
Testing spring drought impact (March-May) on Dutch potato price forecasting, focusing on emergence and early tuber development effects.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_SPRING_VOL
Testing spring price volatility patterns (March-June) using GARCH-family models to capture volatility clustering and regime dynamics.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_STORAGE_DECAY
Testing storage cost accumulation and quality decay impacts on Dutch potato prices through three mechanisms: simple monthly cost accumulation, temperature-accelerated deterioration, and stock depletion market power dynamics.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_STORAGE_ELECTRICITY_COSTS
Testing the impact of industrial electricity costs on potato storage release decisions using Eurostat energy price data. Storage facilities consume 50-100 kWh per ton annually for cooling and ventilation, creating economic pressure when electricity prices rise. This hypothesis uses REAL DATA ONLY from repository interfaces.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_STORAGE_INFORMATION_ASYMMETRY
Testing information asymmetry mechanisms in storage markets where operators possess private knowledge about quality deterioration, storage costs, and optimal release timing that creates predictable patterns 2-6 weeks ahead of spot price movements.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_STORAGE_OPTIMIZATION
Testing strategic storage management decisions that create predictable price patterns through release timing optimization, quality preservation economics, and inventory cost management.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_STORAGE_TEMPERATURE_GRADIENTS
Storage temperature micro-dynamics hypotheses tested using REAL DATA from repository interfaces. Three variants examined diurnal temperature stress, cumulative gradient accumulation, and spatial temperature heterogeneity effects on Dutch potato price forecasting.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_SUPPLY_CHAIN_INTEGRATION
Testing integrated supply chain mechanisms that combine quality premiums, production cycles, volatility regimes, and storage optimization for superior Dutch potato price forecasting.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_TEMPORAL_DERIVATIVES
This document tracks experimental runs for temporal derivative analysis using NDVI/EVI velocity, acceleration, and inflection point detection to predict potato prices. Tests whether advanced derivative analysis can surpass the 20.5% improvement achieved by basic temporal trajectory analysis.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_THERMAL_NDVI_DECOUPLING
**Central Hypothesis**: Thermal infrared detects crop stress 2-4 weeks before vegetation indices respond, providing early warning signals for quality degradation and yield impacts in Dutch potato markets through thermal-NDVI decoupling analysis.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_TIGHTNESS_REGIME_SWITCHING
Testing revolutionary regime-based forecasting framework where market tightness creates fundamentally distinct behavioral regimes requiring different modeling approaches. Each regime (TIGHT <25%, NORMAL 25-30%, LOOSE >30% free market ratio) exhibits qualitatively different price dynamics, weather sensitivity, and cross-border transmission effects using REAL DATA ONLY from official European stock surveys.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_TRANSFORMER_GARCH_HYBRID
**Hypothesis**: Advanced transformer-GARCH hybrid models combining attention-based volatility prediction with econometric regime detection create superior potato price forecasting through multi-scale temporal pattern recognition and volatility clustering prediction.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_TRANSPORT_COST_PASSTHROUGH
**Hypothesis**: Transport cost changes pass through to Dutch potato prices with predictable patterns determined by arbitrage thresholds, trade flow intensity, and asymmetric adjustment dynamics, with the industry-standard €12/ton threshold as the critical breakpoint.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_TRANSPORT_NETWORK_OPTIMIZATION
Testing transport network optimization algorithms for Dutch potato price forecasting through real-time diesel arbitrage networks, multi-modal transport optimization, and dynamic routing network effects. This hypothesis builds on FAMILY_DIESEL_CORRELATION (REFUTED with 48-84% worse performance) by advancing beyond simple correlation to sophisticated transport network optimization intelligence.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_VEGETATION_PEAK_FORECASTING
Testing vegetation peak timing forecasting using real Sentinel-2 satellite data from Zarr stores to predict potato price movements based on growing season vegetation patterns.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_VEGETATION_PEAK_TIMING
This document tracks all experimental runs for the vegetation peak timing intelligence hypothesis family. Each experiment tests whether NDVI peak timing derived from real Sentinel-2 satellite data can predict harvest season potato prices.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_WEATHER_ACCUMULATION
Testing cumulative weather stress indices for Dutch potato price forecasting through Growing Degree Days (GDD), compound stress interactions, and critical window accumulation models. This hypothesis builds directly on FAMILY_WEATHER_EXTREMES which was INCONCLUSIVE due to insufficient extreme events, using a superior accumulation-based approach.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_WEATHER_EXTREMES
Testing the impact of extreme weather events (heatwaves >30°C, frost <-5°C, excessive rainfall >50mm/day) during critical potato growth periods on Dutch potato spot prices. This hypothesis builds on prior evidence from FAMILY_SPRING_DROUGHT (production impacts), FAMILY_PRODUCTION_CYCLE (weather predictive power), and FAMILY_SPRING_VOL (volatility regimes).
Hypotheses
FAMILY_WEATHER_STRESS_ACCUMULATION_LAGS
Testing lagged weather-storage transmission mechanisms where growing season weather stress accumulation (April-September) affects storage operator decisions during storage season (October-May) through quality memory effects, cost anticipation patterns, and strategic positioning with 3-12 month delay mechanisms using REAL DATA ONLY from repository interfaces.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_WEEKLY_SEASONALITY_PATTERNS
Testing weekly micro-seasonality patterns in Dutch potato markets through systematic weekly positioning effects, holiday proximity impacts, and seasonal week interactions operating at finer temporal resolution than traditional monthly seasonal indicators.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_WEEKLY_VOLATILITY
Testing day-of-week volatility patterns in Dutch potato markets through Monday spike effects, Friday decline patterns, and intraweek GARCH cycles to capture systematic volatility dynamics at higher frequency than traditional monthly patterns.
Hypotheses
FAMILY_YIELD_VARIANCE_PREDICTORS
Testing satellite-derived yield variance predictors for Dutch potato price forecasting through within-field NDVI heterogeneity, regional yield divergence signals, and temporal NDVI stability patterns using 10m resolution Sentinel-2 data and BRP parcel boundaries.